A golden (forecasting) paradox
Prices follow the path of the 1970s oil crisis but not the forecasts
Met my friend, a gold merchant, today. We naturally got to talking about gold. I told him that during the (first) oil crisis of the 1970s, gold prices fell for the first two months. This is what we have been seeing.
Our talk got me thinking of my forecasts. So, I decided to rerun them with the data we have thus far for April (28th). First, however, I checked how my standard, i.e., assuming no oil crisis, forecasts had fared, and the result was not encouraging.
