Deprcon Warning
Exceptionally I am publishing a warning from GnS Economics.
From GnS Economics Newsletter.
These are the lines none of us would have ever wanted write, but we have to. The current situation in and around war in Ukraine has opened a path, which could lead to a nuclear confrontation.
Ukraine has struck another early-warning (over-the-horizon) radar, this time in Orenburg region, near Orsk, some 1500 km from Ukraine. This radar did not even look at the direction of Ukraine, which makes the strike an act of madness, or something sinister.
These strikes to the Russian early-warning system can serve only two aims:
Ukrainian leadership is desperately trying to fully commit NATO to the war in Ukraine, or
Strikes are a preparation for nuclear strikes to Russia by the U.S.
Needless to say that the latter is extremely speculative. However, it is one of the two motives that can be established for the strikes. Alas, we have to acknowledge its existence. We have gone through the first scenario in our previous warning.
What is more is that, according to Kremlin, the U.S., the U.K. and France would have deployed ground-based intermediate and short-range missile system to Ukraine. These systems were previously banned by the INF (Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces) Treaty from which President Trump withdraw the U.S. in February 2019, citing Russian non-compliance and missiles developed by China.
These missile systems can be used to strike deep into Russia. The risk is that, if Ukraine would continue to target the early-warning system of Russia, at some point Kremlin would simply be forced to act, because it would seriously undermine their nuclear deterrence.
Nuclear deterrence operates on three dimensions: time, distance and altitude. Time and distance are crucial for the response (retaliation, effectively) and altitude where missiles fly, is crucial for anti-missile and other defense systems to operate. Over-the-horizon radars are crucial for all three dimensions, as early warnings give authorities time to react and enact defensive measures. If they are taken out, or their ability to detect an approaching intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) seriously hindered, modern nuclear deterrence simply fails. This is the reason, why Kremlin would be forced to react if the early-warning system of Russia would become compromised by a foreign party (Ukraine/NATO). This applies also to the U.S. and all other nuclear powers. Everybody would eventually be forced to react under such a threat.
There are naturally other options than just a nuclear strike for Kremlin, but they all would need to be major, which would enflame the conflict further. If Kremlin would choose to enact a nuclear strike, it would probably use a tactical nuke, which is smaller than a strategical nuke (e.g., an ICBM), and hit a military target, like an airbase.
This is why we (with an extremely heavy heart) issue a warning of a possible nuclear strike in Europe. This warning is effective for the time being.
We don’t present any likelihood for it, at this point at least, as it would be macabre. However, we do not consider the likelihood to be very high at current time, but if strikes to Russian early-warning system continue, it will grow rapidly.
While still unlikely, we urge you to start to prepare for the unthinkable.
Error regarding the difference between tactical and strategical nukes corrected on 1/6/2024.
Disclaimer:
The information contained herein is current as at the date of this entry. The information presented here is considered reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. Changes may occur in the circumstances after the date of this entry and the information contained in this post may not hold true in the future.
No information contained in this entry should be construed as an investment advice. GnS Economics nor any of the authors cannot be held responsible for errors or omissions in the data presented. Readers should always consult their own personal financial or investment advisor before making any investment decision, and readers using this post do so solely at their own risk.
Readers must make an independent assessment of the risks involved and of the legal, tax, business, financial or other consequences of their actions. GnS Economics nor any of the authors cannot be held i) responsible for any decision taken, act or omission; or ii) liable for damages caused by such measures.