Welcome to my (renewed) Forecasting Newsletter!
To those that do not know me, I am an Associate of Professor of Economics and a CEO of GnS Economics, a Helsinki-based macroeconomic forecasting consultancy. I have studied economics at the University of Helsinki and New York University.
Since early 2012, I have led a small forecasting team at GnS Economics. My main responsibility has been to construct our forecasting scenarios, and we (I) have been very succesfull in it! Effectively, not a single major development has surprised us (me) during the past 5 years.
Here are some examples for our forecasts, as detailed in my Epoch Times column:
We warned the subscribers of our Deprcon Service (the service was only available in Finnish back then) about the likely crash in the U.S. stock markets on Jan. 29, 2018, and published a blog warning on the same thing on Feb. 2 of that same year. Few days later, on Monday, Feb. 5, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 1175 points, or 4.6 percent, its biggest point-wise daily fall ever before.
In June 2018, we warned that asset markets are likely to reach an ‘inflection point’ in September/October due to the withdrawal of both central bank stimulus (QT) and de-leveraging efforts of China. The asset market rout began in October and ended in January 2019 with the ‘pivot’ of the Federal Reserve.
In the December 2018 Q-Review forecasting report, we warned that the Eurozone would be likely to fall into recession in Q4 and the United States in Q1 2020. We reiterated our warnings in March 2019. The Eurozone fell into recession in Q4 2019 and the United States, helped quite notably by the Coronavirus, in February 2020.
We warned our subscribers that the Coronavirus outbreak in China is likely to go global (cause a global pandemic) on Jan. 29, 2020, and published a blog detailing the same on the next day. On Feb. 23, 2020, we warned that there is a risk of a heavily increased volatility in the asset markets. On March 8, we warned on the possibility of an outright collapse of the asset markets, and on March 11 on the risk of a capital market meltdown. On March 19, 2020, we noted that the crash is likely to be over, for now.
No one is naturally correct all the time, and we failed to see that we would see one of the fiercest asset market rallies in 2020 and 2021. In mid-March 2020, we only stated that we are in a ‘bear market’, “which will also include energetic rallies, some of which may last for months”. We also expected the onset of a European banking crisis during 2020 and 2021, which failed to materialize (for now).
In March 2021 we warned about the approaching inflation shock and in June 2021 that the shock will last (be “persistent”). On Feb. 12, 2022, we warned customers of our Deprcon Service on the increased likelihood of a war between Russia and Ukraine.
As you can see, we (I) have a stellar forecasting record, which all due to the method of forecasting we (I) have followed. I can honestly disclose that around 95% of all our of our warnings and calls for turning points, etc., have come through my analysis. I also formalized the forecasting process we, almost accidentally, started to apply in our forecasts right from the beginning. I will present the building blocks of this process here in due course.
In my posts, I will concentrate on forecasting the developments (or turning points) in the economy and financial markets. I will also provide information on how to prepare for the coming recession and crisis.
The general pace of posting will be 3-4 posts per month. At the end of each month, I will provide a detailed outlook for the world economy based on our Deprcon Outlooks. Please note that, because I am not a native english-speaker, the language of this newsletter will be “broken english”.
By following me and ordering my newsletters you will receive forecasts with a high accuracy, but you will also learn how to apply the method by yourself. Welcome to the ride!