Talked to my Finnish-Iranian contact again yesterday. We see each other every week nowadays and share updates on recent developments and hypotheses. Yesterday he shared some recent news from Iran, which indicates that the regime is not messing around this time but is preparing for an existential conflict with the U.S. Essentially, President Trump risks walking into a deadly trap in the Middle East.
Before we enter there, I want to discuss one thing with you. The content I publish here has evolved and fluctuated quite a lot since I started this newsletter/blog. It reflects my own interests, which I expect to mirror the interests of my readers (naturally). This week, I have focused on politics and even conspiracy theories. These topics (+geopolitics) have actually been in my life longer than economics, which I was introduced to by a great teacher, Jussi Hievanen, at the Commercial School of Hyvinkää at the age of sixteen/seventeen. However, politics and geopolitics entered my life at the age of thirteen/fourteen, when I started to read about Finnish military history. Conspiracies followed a few years after, and they have been a major household topic from early adulthood into now. One of the best quotes of my mother (a retired lecturer of history) is “There have always been conspiracies. We just need to know which one we are currently in.” She’s so great. :D
If it now happens that you’re looking just for my analyses and forecasts on the economy, I urge you to become a subscriber of the Weekly Forecasts of GnS Economics. Each report includes three parts, which provide an economic analysis, geopolitical analysis, and statistical forecasts. While geopolitical and statistical forecasts will develop into co-written pieces, the economic analysis is always mine for the foreseeable future. So, if the speculation of this outlet is not what you’re looking for, subscribe to the Weekly Forecasts. One of the three sections is always free.
Now, let’s update what is happening in Iran.
There have been two major developments since the 12-day war. First, the country seems more united than in a long time. I emphasize here that my contact and friend, who has lived in Finland for close to 30 years and built a formidable career here, cares only about Iran. I have never heard a single agenda-style statement from him during the two years we’ve been talking. And, I can assure you that I have become very good at spotting one, no matter how cloaked, after being close to leading Finnish politicians for about a decade.
On Wednesday, Iranians celebrated the anniversary of the Iranian Revolution. Celebrations on 11 February mark the date, in 1979, when the Iranian army denounced that it would remain neutral in the uprising (led by Khomeini), leading to the resignation of Shah-era Prime Minister Shapour Bakhtiar (the Shah had left already earlier). The difference was that both official and unofficial sources said the festivities had the largest participation in years. My friend estimated that around 40 million Iranians took the streets, while the usual participation is only around 25 million people.
Notable aspects included the large-scale presence of Iranian leadership among the crowd and the open display of weapons. Especially the new medium-range ballistic missile, Khorramshahr 4 (Khyber or Kheibar), was displayed. The missile can carry a 1800 kg warhead or Multiple Independently Targetable Re-Entry Vehicle (MIRV), and it travels at a speed of Mach 8 (in the atmosphere; Mach 16 outside). It has been speculated that the missile is actually an intermediate-range intercontinental ballistic missile (IRBM), like the Oreshnik, but that Iranians are downplaying its range to calm the Europeans.
According to the info I’ve gathered from several sources, Iran used mostly older missiles with warheads of a few hundred kilos during the 12-day war. The destruction that the Khorramshahr 4 could unleash on Israel would likely be unparalleled compared to what we witnessed during the final days of the 12-day war. At this point, I do not have definite knowledge of whether either the Israelis or the U.S. possess any means to deflect such a missile, but based on what I have read so far, it seems unlikely. What this implies is that Iran could strike any U.S. or Israeli asset in the region at will with a missile with a considerable destruction capacity. Iran reportedly has hundreds of Khorramshahr 4 missiles. You can find a lot more information simply by Googling the missile.
The above is relevant because the dialogue in Iran has switched from deterrence into attacking. My contact tells me that this is a major shift. When I asked him whether he thinks that the Iranian people expect a strong response if Iran is attacked, his answer was “Probably.” He also revealed an important feature of the Iranian leadership behind this.
