Like I anticipated, the European Coalition for War has enacted all brakes in its possession to derail the peace process in Ukraine. On Tuesday, I wrote:
Recent statements and clips from the meeting in the White House raise the prospect that European leaders are, once again, resorting to the European "peacekeeping force" to stall the peace process. President Trump reportedly said that while the US wouldn't send troops, other European nations could, and that would be "ok" to the Kremlin. This, naturally, would be a massive misunderstanding on the part of President Trump. Maria Zakharova, the Russian spokesperson in the U.N., already replied by noting that Russia does not accept any scenarios where NATO countries' troops will be stationed in Ukraine.
And concluded:
I am going to assume that regardless of what happens now between Putin and Zelenskyy in the coming days (probably nothing), what Putin and Trump agreed on Friday continues to play in the background. While President Trump has made two failed attempts (Jeddah and Istanbul) to establish peace (ceasefire), he seems to be on a relatively steep learning curve. This makes me hopeful, even though we would see another setback (delay).
It is certain that Presidents Putin and Trump did not agree on “NATO boots” on the ground on Friday, but this is what the European Coalition for War is pushing for, regardless. Although it has been a non-starter from the beginning, European leaders are cleverly and stubbornly feeding the idea to President Trump, e.g., through deliberate misunderstandings. However, I doubt that President Trump will fall to it this time around.
The start of the peace process in Ukraine was ‘wobbly’ for President Trump. He bought the lies of the U.S. Deep State about over a million Russian casualties. He attempted to exert power (bullying) over a nuclear superpower (Russia) who was clearly winning the war. These errors resulted, most likely, from the lies fed to him by the deep state and from his negotiation strategy, which looks for a position of power. The problem with Ukraine is that he (the U.S.) has none, except nuclear blackmail, which is something President Trump is (very) unlikely to resort to over a country that is not in NATO. Fortunately, as I have noted, he seems to be on a (steep) learning curve.
The problem here is time. Time for a negotiated settlement is constrained for two reasons:
Russian leadership is getting fed up.
European leaders are growing bolder.
What almost every single (Western) analyst gets wrong about President Putin is that he’s a moderate Russian leader who is under fire from the hardliners in Russian leadership for his soft stance towards Ukraine. Throughout my adult life, I have known, through my relatives who worked at Finnish embassies in Russia (and the Soviet Union), that there’s a clique in Russia resembling the neocons of the U.S. Like neocons, some of them even think that Russia should launch a preemptive nuclear strike against NATO because of the advantage they hold in delivery methods (most notably in missile technology and submarines). President Putin cannot keep them in check forever with failed promises of the West. His position is secure only as long as he manages to keep the hardliners in check. The whispers I hear point to a breaking point approaching. What I mean by this is that if this round of negotiations fail, President Putin needs to take his 'gloves off' or risk a coup within his own administration (or in the military). It is practically impossible to assess the likelihood of this, but it’s above zero and likely rising rapidly currently.
European leaders are also finding their “backbone” in the sense that they are growing more courageous and can eventually take matters into their own hands. This would mean that they would act on their own and put “boots” of European troops on the ground in Ukraine derailing all plans of President Trump.
For these reasons I think that we are in a crucial timeline concerning Ukraine and Europe in general. Russia launching its 60-day plan, which we detailed in the Weekly Forecasts, and European nations deploying troops to Europe would mean utter destruction of Ukraine and/or the war spreading into Europe. I am not again sure how well aware President Trump is of this, but I am relatively confident that President Putin presented this to him on Friday. The reports of the team of President Trump leaving the meeting pale and looking like they had been punched in the gut, the very brief press briefing, and the cancelling of the dinner point to this, like we noted in the Weekly Forecasts. We just have to hope Presidents Putin and Trump are in agreement on the steps that come next. I believe this to be the case, but mistakes can always happen.
Have a great weekend,
Tuomas
P.s. Tensions are rising both in and around Venezuela and in the Middle East. I’ll return to these in the coming days.
Paywall removed on 3/23/2026.
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