I have to say that I am intrigued. We got updates to the third quarter gross domestic product of the U.S. from Bureau of of Economic Analysis. The U.S. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 4.4% in Q3, instead of 4.3% reported earlier. Quarter-to-quarter, the U.S. economy grew at a 1.1% rate.
The last nowcast of GnS Economics from October expected the U.S. economy to 0.9% Q-to-Q in the third quarter. The pure (unadjusted) anticipated Q-to-Q growth rate of our new longer-term forecasting model was 1.62%, with a lower 95% confidence interval of 0.84%, at the end of September. In other words, while the model is planned to forecast the turning points of the U.S. economy eight quarters ahead (a medium-term forecasting model), it has proven remarkably accurate in short-term forecasts, too. What makes this even more remarkable is that it has anticipated the acceleration of the U.S. economy, followed by a slump, since its inception. This figure is its first forecast for U.S. real GDP from the Weekly Forecasts 24/2025.
I will discuss more on this next week. Now I just want to update you on the very latest forecasts, based on the first revision of U.S. Q3 GDP.
