The Plot Thickens
Iran strikes Israel
Issues discussed:
Tehran strikes Israel, hitting mostly military installations.
It seems to have been the aim of Israeli leadership to get Iran to strike Israel, again.
Regional war is now really close in the Middle East, which would have harrowing repercussions for the world.
Iran conducted her long-awaited retaliatory strike to Israel on Tuesday. While reports of the damage are somewhat conflicting, we can conclude that Iran seems to hold the capacity to overwhelm the much-praised Israeli air-defence. This is a video of Iranian strikes reportedly hitting the Nevatim airbase (source). Hits to the airbase have been confirmed by several online sources, like the hit to the close-proximity of Mossad headquarters in Tel Aviv (see geological confirmations from this; the confirmed damage).
The video evidence also seems to corroborate my previous assessment, based on analysis of missile experts, that Iran possesses hypersonic weapons. We can now confirm that the threat level of Iran, to Israel and U.S. assets in the region, to be high, like I also speculated on my worst-case scenario for the Iran-Israel war.
I have to note that a conspiracy theory has also been floated, where the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would have deliberately turned off the ‘Iron Dome’ aerial defence system. He would have done this to let Iran to inflict maximal damage to justify deepening escalation with Iran. I speculate this further below. It also should be noted that some Iranian strikes, like the one that landed close to the Mossad HQ, look like a warning (we could but we did not).
All parties confirm one thing: Iran hit military targets. Iranian leadership also stated that they have now concluded the operation with Israel and no further strikes are planned, unless Israel strikes back. This, however, is exactly what looks to happen next.
What is the aim of Israel?
I noted in the Twilight in the Middle East that:
Yet, while de-escalationary forces are very strong in the region, escalation has now deepened considerably. Iran and Israel (U.S.) have been fighting a proxy-war for decades, which makes the strike on the Iranian embassy in Damascus by Israeli fighter jets a deliberate act of escalation. Also, like I noted previously, based on information I received from a former U.N. Middle East intelligence officer, nothing in and around Israel happens without the Mossad and/or Shin Bet knowing about it. I thus consider that Israeli intelligence (+ probably CIA) allowed the October 7th strikes to happen. The IDF responding with disproportionate force in Gaza also makes no sense (unless genocide was the aim all along).
This latest cycle of escalation started from the terrorist attacks of Hamas to Israel on October 7. I did not believe them to be a coincidence then, and now I am even more confident that they were not. Israel continued to escalate with the utterly useless strike to Iranian embassy in Damascus and then assassinated Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, while he was visiting Tehran. These are deliberate actions of escalation.
Moreover, intelligence sources have speculated that the strikes to pagers and other hand-held devices of Hezbollah fighters was approx. 15 years in the planning. A mole near Iranian leadership also reportedly tipped Israel on the whereabouts of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah before his assassination on Friday, 27 September. Israel also shared detailed maps on locations of missiles of Hezbollah and had animations ready presenting the Lebanese houses hosting these missiles.
Thus, I think that this currently ongoing operation by the IDF (Israeli Defense Forces) and Mossad has been in planning for a very long time. I also think that no action is “unnecessary” or “unplanned” in the grand scheme of things.
This implies that Israel was planning to deliver brutal (genocidal) attacks in Gaza, to push the residents out from Gaza city and to open another front with Hezbollah in the north. This also implies that Israel has been seeking a war with Iran. This all fits to my/our Peak Escalation narrative, yet it does not remove responsibility of other actors in the region, including the U.S. and Russia. Currently, everything points to the conclusion that this is not the end of escalation in the region, by far.