The worst-case scenario for 2024

Into the year of a "bang"?

Issues contributed:

• The worst-case scenario implies several regional wars erupting or escalating during 2024, which would deliver a devastating blow to the world economy.

• New information implies that the U.S. and Russia have had ‘cladestine rules’ or ‘invisible lines’ concerning the Russo-Ukrainian war, which brings hope.

• 2024 looks like the year, when “everything” can fall apart.

We at GnS Economics published our scenarios for 2024 on Friday. I wrote the worst-case scenario and feel it fell a bit short. We have a limited space to write on the scenarios in the Outlooks as Substack has a length limit. We also try to keep the Outlooks compact, providing a maximal amount of information in a condensed space.

In this entry, I will re-publish the worst-case scenario and add some remarks to it. They mostly add to my two pieces going through the economics of Middle East conflict (see this and this). I will also present new information on the background deals concerning the Russo-Ukrainian war. They imply that both Ukraine (NATO) and Russia have been fighting ‘one hand tied behind their backs’, as per a mutual agreement.

Note that my year-end offer (25% off) ends tomorrow.

The worst-case (war) scenario

From December 2023 World Economic Outlook, 2024: The year of chaos or renewed hope?