Thoughts on Nuclear Deterrence

The strategic aftermath of the Oreshnik

I am still leaning towards the hypothesis that the NATO/Ukraine strikes to Toropets in early morning of September 18 included a tactical (low-yield, low-radiation) nuclear weapon. Since the piece I published on the topic, I have continued to discuss on the hypothesis with people familiar with explosions, and they continue to convey the same message: it’s extremely difficult to make warehouse of conventional explosives to go in a way that forms a massive mushroom cloud, unless they have been piled up for such a purpose. Thus, no one has been able to refute the hypothesis of a (tactical) nuclear strike, while circumstantial evidence continues to point to that direction.

What adds to this is the “Oreshnik” strike by Russia on the factory in Dnipro. The “test-launch” of the missile has permanently changed the nuclear deterrence with some dire implications. First figures on the devastation at the Yuzhmash plant have also appeared. I will detail also those.

Utter devastation