I have to be honest with you. I did not write the book yesterday. I first wrote the worst- and best-case scenarios for 2026 for GnS Economics to be published this week, and then I used the rest of the day to learn about Venezuela. This is something I felt I simply needed to do.
However, there’s not much more to add to my original assessment. Speculation on some kind of a deal existing between President Trump’s administration and Venezuelan leadership (+ Russia) was rampant all day. At this point, it is relatively irrelevant whether President Maduro knew what was coming or not (I still think he did). If he did not, he understood the situation right away. To note, Venezuelan media has reported that the personal guard of President Maduro would have been killed in execution style. If this is the case, it should come as no surprise that there were no U.S. casualties or injuries. Now we wait to see whether Venezuela falls into a chaos, which has been the general end result of U.S.-led coups in recent decades.
What I want to discuss with you today concerns the situation in and around Iran. For the past week or so, information about Israel and the U.S. preparing for the second round in the war has been accumulating. The destabilization efforts we have seen during the past few days in Iran are most likely a preparatory stage.
Like I noted before, I managed to find credible Iranian accounts during the 12-day war, which provided accurate information on the developments in Iran, but also from Israel through military channels. Through a chance, I got acquainted with Finnish-Iranian businessmen during the fall. They have direct contacts in Iran, and I consider them to be men of morals and high integrity. They are also oftentimes genuinely worried about what’s happening in their country of origin. Their concern is quite natural, as they have relatives in the country. Through them I have also learned that while the country was heavily divided before the 12-day war, Iranian people have now united in ways not seen for a long time. Like the populace of all self-respecting nations, Iranians also do not like when foreign powers try to meddle with their affairs. During the 12-day war, I also started to admire the resilience and determination of the Iranians. I also learned that the situation in Iran was not so dire and repressive, as we have been told. Make no mistake, I am no fan of Islamist oppression (or any kind of oppression for that matter), but major Iranian cities appear to be much more secular and free than we have been told.
What my sources have revealed is that 1) the demonstrations in Iran have been mostly on price hikes and that 2) elements have been “inserted” into them, which have tried to turn them violent. The high command of the Iranian military is aware of this and has taken action. The above makes me think that the insurgency is directed from outside Iran and is part of a preparation for military strikes.
I have also been pondering, why is it that the Israeli government is so obsessed with Iran? The official narrative is that Iran funds terrorism. Whether the claim holds or not, after the OHCHR found that Israel has committed a genocide in the Gaza Strip, all such accusations become irrelevant, because we know who is the biggest terrorist in the area. Moreover, what has been surprising for me to learn is that Iranian military is constantly hunting ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) or “Daesh” members as they constantly attack Iran. Essentially, the U.S. and Iranian regimes are fighting the same enemy, even though there is some credible evidence pointing to ISIS being the creation of the CIA. This, however, would not be the first time CIA is countering the aims of the political administration of the U.S.
Like I noted in The Double Standards, published at the end of 2024, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu presented a map of “The New Middle East” in the U.N. General Assembly on September 22, 2023. It showed Israel to control most of Syria, about half of Iraq and Saudi Arabia, and about one-third of Egypt. Moreover, I also noted the worry of the U.N. concerning Israel’s (Netanyahu’s) aims:
Francesca Albanese, the UN’s Special Rapporteur on human rights in the occupied Palestinian regions, has been warning on the expansionary plans of Netanjahu for years. Just two months ago (before the collapse of Syria) she re-iterated her warning in an interview summarized as “Idea of greater Israel fueling Netanyahu’s ideology”
Iran, with her military might, is the biggest contestant to the ideal of Greater Israel in the region. She is likely to possess the resources to annihilate Israel but also to support all efforts of Israel to expand its borders. What I don’t understand, though, is why other Arab states seem unwilling to acknowledge the sinister aims of Israel. In any case, I currently consider the above to be the most plausible explanation for Israel’s continued aggression toward Iran. Not the nukes (which Iran may possess already).
The facts on the ground are such that the Iranian regime is fragile, but so is that of Israel. From the Into the 2nd round:
It became clear by the end of the 12-day war that the Israeli state could not withstand the gradually increasing onslaught launched by Iran. The success rate of interception of Iranian missiles dwindled and would most likely have reached a point where Iran could have struck anywhere in Israel at will in a matter of days (weeks at max). Note that I had warned about the Iranian missile capacity in Twilight in the Middle East. Moreover, Israel is not a battle-hardened society in the sense that Israelis are not used to destructive missiles raining on them (while they are accustomed to the “homemade” missiles used by Hamas). There are credible rumors that it was actually PM Netanyahu that asked the U.S. to broker the ceasefire. The fragility of the Israeli society continues to be the strategic weakness of Israel.
I will write more about the strategic weaknesses and strengths of Iran and Israel later. Now, I just ask you to prepare for the possibility that the Iran-Israel war recommences soon (maybe even within days). We look to open the year just like I warned in Chaos looms for early 2026.
To end, like you may have noticed, the “European Coalition for War” has signed a “Paris Declaration,” which includes a decree to establish a multinational force to be deployed to Ukraine in the case of a ceasefire. This is a development I have been warning about since March, and now it’s here. Let’s discuss on it and its (dire) implications later.
Tuomas
P.s. The implications of U.S. special forces seizing a Russian tanker traveling out of Venezuela in international waters can also be rather dire. I’ll also write on this later in the week, but I want to remind you on this.
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