Another metric sending a U.S. recession warning, Part II

Daily Thoughts 2 Apr 2025

Apr 02, 2025

∙ Paid

Last Friday, I wrote about the private-sector yield curve of the U.S. Then I noticed that we needed an update with longer time series, because the data does not cover a single period of stagflation (recession + rapid inflation). Here’s the “short” private-sector yield curve with the most recent data.

Average yield of Baa-credit rated U.S. corporate bonds with 20+ year maturities and the bank prime loan rate. Source: GnS Economics, Moody’s, St. Louis Fed, NBER

The next figure presents the private-sector yield curve, reaching 1955.

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