Tuomas Malinen on Geopolitics and the Economy

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Tuomas Malinen on Geopolitics and the Economy
Another metric sends a U.S. recession warning; Part I

Another metric sends a U.S. recession warning; Part I

Daily Thoughts 28 Mar 2025

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Tuomas Malinen
Mar 28, 2025
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Tuomas Malinen on Geopolitics and the Economy
Another metric sends a U.S. recession warning; Part I
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The private sector yield curve has turned upwards, signaling an approaching U.S. recession. This is how it looks now.

The difference between the U.S. Baa -rated corporate bonds with maturities of 20(+) years and the bank prime rate. Source: GnS Econoimics, St. Louis Fed, NBER

I explained the private sector yield curve in May:

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