On Sunday evening, Iran made good of its promise to retaliate if Israel would not abide the ceasefire agreed upon in Lebanon. Israel (naturally) replied, and hence we have entered the second go of the war, like we at GnS Economics warned some nine days ago.
For the first time, Iran has extended her deterrence to Hezbollah and Lebanon. It had issued several threats of this previously but decided to act only now. This shift is probably related to the fact that the “new guard” is now in charge. An unintended consequence of the “regime change” effort by President Trump and Netanyahu, I am sure.
Iran started with a “tit-for-tat” barrage of 20 ballistic missiles and some drones, with the missiles reportedly carrying relatively small warheads (remember that, e.g., the Khorramshahr-4 can carry a 1,800-kilogram warhead). The IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) announced that the operation will last at least seven days. They did alter their statement a few hours ago to the operation being finished but that it would continue if Israel continued hitting Lebanon, which it did.
Whether Iran has been able to fix the (likely) issues with its long-range missiles remains unclear, but it is almost certain that the U.S. has upped the ante on the defense capabilities of Israel to the maximum. Probably relating to this, an IRGC-linked account noted that Iran would have increased the speed of Khorramshahr-4 in the atmosphere to Mach 9.
According to reports, U.S. President Donald Trump has vowed to stay out, for now. However, the U.S. Central Command will most definitely run support operations (at this stage). President Trump has also issued strange “orders” for Iran and Israel to stand down and hinted at a peace deal being close. Under current circumstances, such a deal could only mean a U.S. withdrawal from the war, which I consider to be unlikely at this point.
Iran is likely following the strategy it envisioned a long time ago, which involves starting with small barrages and drones to first target the interceptor stockpiles and calibrate its missiles (noting that I am no missile expert). Israel will retaliate by hitting Lebanon (already occurring), with strikes to military infrastructure and occasional strikes to civilian infrastructure (to test Iran). Iran will reply, and the wheels of war will keep on turning. In other words, expect the conflict to escalate gradually.
I will not write more today because the situation needs deeper analysis. There’s a high likelihood that this round “is the one,” the fight Israel and Iran have been preparing for almost 50 years, unless President Trump finds a “trump card.”
I urge you to check these pieces to understand where we’re likely heading to (keeping in mind my ongoing summer campaign):
A (reverse) David vs. Goliath. (Free)
I will continue on this tomorrow.
Have a great start to the week,
Tuomas
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