Yesterday, we at GnS Economics published a warning on the threat of an imminent attack of the U.S.-Israel block on Iran. Today, we revoked the warning, as new information rolled in debunking claims we received (from non-Iranian sources) on the rapid buildup of U.S. military assets in the region. By the looks of it, there was an effort to turn the demonstrations on price hikes, caused by the “maximum pressure” campaign unleashed by President Trump and the U.S.-led coup in Venezuela, into anti-regime riots. By Sunday, it was clear that the attempt had failed, which led President Trump to de-escalate his rhetoric (according to the latest rumors, he’s considering “non-kinetic” options).
As an interesting twist, a journalist reported in X that Iran would have effectively decapitated Starlink over Iran using Chinese tech. A search by Grok found multiple sources stating that this would have happened,1 and I am not surprised. I have long suspected that Beijing will be forced to start to draw a line in the sand on how far it allows the Trump administration to go in its meddling with allies crucial to the energy security of China. This holds especially now after the coup in Venezuela. The jamming could have been one factor behind the backing down of the ‘Trump-Netanyahu clique.’
After the failed destabilization effort, the propaganda campaign has continued. Recent claims put the death toll from the crackdown of demonstrations by the Iranian regime anywhere between 450 and 10000. The figures from the Iranian accounts tell a completely different story, with around 40-50 demonstrators and about a dozen policemen and military officers dead. Who do we trust here? Let me tell you one example clarifying my position.
When I was teaching Development Economics at the University of Helsinki, it led me to read about not just developing economies in more detail but also human rights issues in those countries. I stumbled into the White Scarf movement (also known as My Stealthy Freedom) in Iran. I became a supporter of this cause, and, if I remember it correctly, I even supported the movement financially with some small amounts (of this I am not sure, though). I did not doubt the movement, based on the atrocities we had heard from Iran.
During the 12-day war, I frantically sought reliable accounts of what was happening not only in Iran but also in Israel, because all of Israel was under heavy media censorship (so was Iran, but not so extensively). I came across two Iranian accounts, which provided accurate information on the strikes by the IRGC on Israel, but also on the strikes by the IDF on Iran. I also came across reports by Westerners, especially U.S. citizens, who were or had been visiting Iran recently. They all told a very different story of what was happening in Iran. I learned that I had been misled about the true situation of women in Iran and that, as an Islamistic country, the Iranian society was relatively free. Yes, oppression of women can be heavy in the countryside, but cities are much more liberal than what has been told to us by the mainstream media.
So, after being lied to by our media for so many years, I am keen to believe the Iranian accounts on the demonstrations. I do not believe we have seen a massacre of civilians in Iran, and today reports of truly massive pro-Iran (note, mostly not pro-regime) demonstrations have been pouring in. I have not seen many reports on them in the MSM.
I think that the demonstrations were and continue to be a propaganda campaign aimed at providing an excuse to attack Iran again because they stand in the way of the Greater Israel plan of Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu. Moreover, remember that I noted already in October 2023 that the winner of a full-scale war in the Middle East would be Russia, while everyone else would lose. This is how insane the plan is. What does PM Netanyahu have on President Trump?
Tuomas
Subtitle changed post-publication.
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A response of Grok to a search with the command “Has Iran jammed Starlink lately?” at 5pm, 1/12/2026
I've been listening to Mia Tousi, an Iranian living in London whose father lives in Tehran.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCjJec0wv1EUomjrBNt1xCTA
He gives a very different picture showing video uploaded via StarLink. From his account, the Iranian regime is close to collapse and the crown prince, Reza Pahlavi, is expected to return to Iran soon. The latest is that pro-Pahlavi demonstrators are executing hundreds of senior IRGC officers and Israel's Mossad is openly helping them. Iranian military has been reluctant to kill their own people, so the IRGC has shipped in mercenaries from Iraq and Syria to kill for them. Tousi says about 2000 demonstrators have been killed, and claims to have seen video from the hospitals confirming this, though he won't show that video he says, because he doesn't want to discourage the protestors.
He also says that most everything has been shut down - the Internet, phone, power, ATM's, and Pahlavi has called for a complete shutdown of all shops and for all Iranians to be in the streets.
It's obviously hard to tell from isolated videos how widespread the uprising is - or how pro-Pahlavi it is - but if Tousi is accurate, I don't expect the Iranian regime to last long - perhaps even just days.
Trump clearly doesn't plan to send in troops, but has threatened the IRGC, and may do air attacks, but that is difficult to do when the situation is so fluid. I presume he is thwarting the IRGC in other ways, like hindering their communications.
Anyway, I'm expecting this to either get very bloody, or to have a full collapse soon.