I have been thinking later, that there are no paths for peace, whatsoever.
Nobody is engaging in a peace process.
In order for the war to end 2 things many have to happen.
-The EU will have to suffer a hard punch. We would be talking about something really bad and horrifying, that more than just messaging it would bring individual countries to run to get out before they can't do it anymore. This would break NATO but also the EU.
- The other option will be a world wild coalition that would form in order to avoid the first. A 3rd World (the non aligned) would place a ultimatum to the rich countries (EU, NATO, US, G7). Many were expecting it to happen during the G20, but it was unfortunately too soon. Putin's announcement he was not coming to Bali made it clear. But also made it clear that the western camp of the G20 was desperate to ask for favours. The non-western camp knows now how much power it holds.
Can Putin hold the war for Modi and Lula join forces against the collective west or will Putin feels itself so isolated he will take measures to bring things to the brink of destruction.
China plays here a major role. The west sinophobic rhetoric was working into bringing China not to support Russia. I believe things changed abruptly after the recent anti-covid protests in China, with clear western involvement. The Putin-Xi open phone call changed the all panorama. China is opening the game. To expect the communist China to maintain neutral was wishful thinking anyways.
Obviously, European leaders are not thinking like you do. Maybe the reason for Finland and Sweden elites to want to join NATO is so they can point to a new crisis, seing additional budget for their military, and claiming this is increasing security.
The EU will not survive in its current form. Thus, I think that one aim of the Russo-Ukrainian war is to create (strengthen) the federal EU. I will/would happen through establishing an EU Defense Union, etc., which will be funded by a borrowing €3-5 trillion (more) to the EU budget.
Concerning the amounts, when Lagarde was appointed at ECB, she said she needed to print 1 trillion for a Green New Deal (but she didn't have time), then she said she needed to print 1 trillion for covid (but it turned out harmless too quickly). It seems that the number she wanted to print was just 1 trillion and the motivation was less a particular project and more Keynesian (that public spending multiplier, you know). Is 3 or 5 trillion in the Overton window now?
Emmanuel Todd (french demographer) was commenting on the Paris-Berlin axis of Europe having disappeared and replaced by a London-Warsaw-Kiev axis in the media. Ursula and Jens do not represent anything. They rise because no European head of State wants to own these decisions. Estonia's president can say anything, he can always plausibly claim that he does not alone make EU policy. Todd thinks it's because the elite is no longer attached to their nation. Reasons he advancess the politician need to hide the failure of the Euro (deindustrialization, failure of structural reforms) or that European elites are financially captured by the US.
I think the diagnostic is correct that UK, Germany, France elite no longer work in the national interest. There was an interesting discussion of James Burnham book on elites (review here https://polsci.substack.com/p/the-machiavellians-defenders-of-freedom) by Marc Andressen, where he explained that the Davos crowd does not believe in anything, they are just anxious to belong to the elite, and repeat the same things as the other ones.
I don't think there is a conspiracy, just people who have more pressing business to attend domestically in Germany and France than rethink what their country is getting from its relationship to the US.
Which one is better in war stuck in the mud, towed low-tech artillery pieces or vehicle integrated, self propelled hi-tech ones? Were combat troops stuck in the mud the logistics would be too.
In history, every item invented has been weaponized so far. Every weapon invented so far is used as long as more powerful or feasible one is invented. I'm afraid this is the case with nukes too.
I have been thinking later, that there are no paths for peace, whatsoever.
Nobody is engaging in a peace process.
In order for the war to end 2 things many have to happen.
-The EU will have to suffer a hard punch. We would be talking about something really bad and horrifying, that more than just messaging it would bring individual countries to run to get out before they can't do it anymore. This would break NATO but also the EU.
- The other option will be a world wild coalition that would form in order to avoid the first. A 3rd World (the non aligned) would place a ultimatum to the rich countries (EU, NATO, US, G7). Many were expecting it to happen during the G20, but it was unfortunately too soon. Putin's announcement he was not coming to Bali made it clear. But also made it clear that the western camp of the G20 was desperate to ask for favours. The non-western camp knows now how much power it holds.
Can Putin hold the war for Modi and Lula join forces against the collective west or will Putin feels itself so isolated he will take measures to bring things to the brink of destruction.
China plays here a major role. The west sinophobic rhetoric was working into bringing China not to support Russia. I believe things changed abruptly after the recent anti-covid protests in China, with clear western involvement. The Putin-Xi open phone call changed the all panorama. China is opening the game. To expect the communist China to maintain neutral was wishful thinking anyways.
Obviously, European leaders are not thinking like you do. Maybe the reason for Finland and Sweden elites to want to join NATO is so they can point to a new crisis, seing additional budget for their military, and claiming this is increasing security.
The EU will not survive in its current form. Thus, I think that one aim of the Russo-Ukrainian war is to create (strengthen) the federal EU. I will/would happen through establishing an EU Defense Union, etc., which will be funded by a borrowing €3-5 trillion (more) to the EU budget.
Concerning the amounts, when Lagarde was appointed at ECB, she said she needed to print 1 trillion for a Green New Deal (but she didn't have time), then she said she needed to print 1 trillion for covid (but it turned out harmless too quickly). It seems that the number she wanted to print was just 1 trillion and the motivation was less a particular project and more Keynesian (that public spending multiplier, you know). Is 3 or 5 trillion in the Overton window now?
Emmanuel Todd (french demographer) was commenting on the Paris-Berlin axis of Europe having disappeared and replaced by a London-Warsaw-Kiev axis in the media. Ursula and Jens do not represent anything. They rise because no European head of State wants to own these decisions. Estonia's president can say anything, he can always plausibly claim that he does not alone make EU policy. Todd thinks it's because the elite is no longer attached to their nation. Reasons he advancess the politician need to hide the failure of the Euro (deindustrialization, failure of structural reforms) or that European elites are financially captured by the US.
I think the diagnostic is correct that UK, Germany, France elite no longer work in the national interest. There was an interesting discussion of James Burnham book on elites (review here https://polsci.substack.com/p/the-machiavellians-defenders-of-freedom) by Marc Andressen, where he explained that the Davos crowd does not believe in anything, they are just anxious to belong to the elite, and repeat the same things as the other ones.
I don't think there is a conspiracy, just people who have more pressing business to attend domestically in Germany and France than rethink what their country is getting from its relationship to the US.
A review of Zbig Brzeznewski book which turned out to be a roadmap for nato expansion up to Ukraine for the west: https://polsci.substack.com/p/the-great-chess-board
Tnx! I'll take a look.
Which one is better in war stuck in the mud, towed low-tech artillery pieces or vehicle integrated, self propelled hi-tech ones? Were combat troops stuck in the mud the logistics would be too.
In history, every item invented has been weaponized so far. Every weapon invented so far is used as long as more powerful or feasible one is invented. I'm afraid this is the case with nukes too.
Echoes of Napoleon's continental system designed to crush Britain but look what happened next?
What doesn't kill you makes you stronger!