And just like that, the path of escalation between Iran and Israel ceased, for a short while at least. Fundamentally nothing has changed, which implies that this is unlikely to last.
Like I noted in The Play of the IRGC II,
President Trump is both “groveling” before Tehran to secure a ceasefire extension and simultaneously planning for further military action. He likely wants to see a ceasefire extension before the World Cup begins or, and most pressingly, before oil and fuel shortages emerge, crashing his presidency, which is expected to happen sometime between July and September. At the same time, however, he’s preparing for means to launch a ground invasion into Iran.
I also urge you to check the latest by Patricia, where she makes a plausible political argument for the “cessation.” This, however, does not explain the inaction of Iran.
Patricia argued recently that Iran may not have been able to fully fix issues with their long-range missiles. However, in their opening statement, the IRGC noted that now they are “ready for True Promise 5.” Could they have made a miscalculation, or was Sunday maybe a test to see whether missiles work as they should?
Just today, pro-Iranian accounts I follow, which tend to be highly critical of their own, noted, e.g., hits to a Patriot PAC-3/2 battery at the Ali Al Salem Air Force Base in Kuwait and to a warehouse at the Ramat David Air Force Base in Israel. I am not a missile expert, but these hint at “accuracy.” Moreover, none of the above explains why Iran is playing the game of tit-for-tat.
Scott Ritter, a former U.S. missile inspector for the United Nations, called on Iran to strike Israel’s desalination plants during the Ramadan War by noting:
If I were in the Iranians’ place, I would destroy Israel’s water desalination plants immediately to end Israel now… Israel must disappear. It is literally the cancer of this planet.
We can disagree on his assessment of Israel (I kind of agree), but he made a compelling point (and he made it repeatedly, if I remember correctly). Why has Iran not aimed for the annihilation of Israel, as the country clearly constitutes an existential threat to it? I am quite certain that if Iran had such a vulnerability, Israel would have attempted to exploit it at least once, and likely multiple times, by now. Why the restraint?
Subscribers of GnS Economics will receive two very different attempts at an explanation this week. In our Weekly Forecasts, a geopolitical theory is presented to explain the inaction, or gradual process, of Iran towards Israel. Here, I will present a conspiratorial view.
The idea came to me yesterday, when a pro-Iranian Telegram account pondered why Iran has not responded to another round of attacks by Israel on Lebanon by noting that “maybe they finally got the memo.” From whom, you might add.
If you remember in End to the War in the Middle East? I noted that,
I think we are relatively close to the ‘saturation point’ of the speculated global shadow government (group-over-groups, or GoG) in the Middle East.
They have destabilized the Trump administration, pushing it to what looks like a never-ending warpath, and ignited a global energy crisis, which carries the potential to unleash an economic collapse by fall and famine in many parts of the globe during next winter. The global travel system will be disrupted, and the electrification of transport will be accelerated, which some say is part of the “Agenda 2030.” The U.S. deep state has also gained the pivot towards U.S. energy, while the military-industrial complex has gained a notable increase in its production and, hence, profits for the foreseeable future.
The war in the Middle East thus looks like a major achievement for the War Triad (deep state, military-industrial complex, and the GoG). Pushing it much further, though, would risk the total collapse of the facade of U.S. military might, which would render a World War III fought against Russia + China impossible in all practical terms.
I now need to add to this that pushing the Middle East, and hence the world, deeper into chaos would become impossible if Israel were neutered by Iran. The GoG needs Israel to retain its chaos-inducing capabilities to wage a war on the world, essentially. Why would they be pursuing this?
From the Horsemen of the Apocalypse:
If the war in the Middle East engulfs the region, it could easily devastate the world economy. Collapse of modern economies tend to lead to poverty and famine, as people lose access to sufficient income. Moreover, food production is under growing strains in many parts of the world. War in the Middle East has the potential to disrupt global supply chains in a way we have not seen for a very long time. The combination of economic collapse, anti-farming policies and wars disrupting supply chains could lead to famine in many countries.
[…]
What would be the aim of such Biblical plights? To crush the will of the people, because if that happens, people turn into easily controllable ‘robots’ or ‘zombies’. This is the way to ultimate control. I am having trouble imaging to what other purpose all this craziness could be aimed at? Every single element from the “climate emergency” to central bank digital currencies lead in the same direction; removing our freedoms and pushing us back into slavery. People will not yield into this, unless their will has been crushed.
What I have also recurrently noted is it does not matter whether you’re a religious or an atheist person or believe in the occult or not. All that matters is that “they” believe.
In the The occult behind the European Coalition for War, I reminded you that dark practices have been the “hobby” of the elites, most likely, for a very long time.
Homicidal urges and the need to hurt other people have given many (sadistic) leaders of the past “power,” which they have started to worship. This has taken the form of torture, occultism, Satan worshipping, and ‘black magic.’ These are historical facts, which are much closer to us, historically, than many of you think. I urge you to check (for example): Hitler’s Monsters: A Supernatural History of the Third Reich (lecture), by Professor of History at Stetson University, Eric Kurlander. It shows that just some 80+ years ago, occultistic forces unleashed the most destructive war in the history of mankind.
The Epstein Files essentially confirmed all this. They are, quite simply, the most disturbing and, most importantly, one of the most revealing historical revelations ever (thus far). They expose a very dark system operating behind the scenes tying politicians, celebrities, and business leaders alike together through malicious practices. This revelation also implies that there’s a central authority or sort that will use the disgraced members of the occult to do its bidding.
It is thus no wonder that “they” are doing their utmost to bury the files. Like I noted in The Satanic Elite (published on 18 February):
You need a similar, or even a bigger, shock [than the Russo-Ukraine War] to bury all allegations and investigations on the “satanic” practices unveiled by the Epstein files. One shock will probably not be enough. This implies that major shocks would need to follow each other in a consecutive manner in order to subjugate the populace into the (very slow) subliminal acceptance of the sickening practices and the existence of a “Satanic elite.”
The war against Iran started ten days later.
Lastly, remember the words of former U.S. President Woodrow Wilson:
Some of the biggest men in the United States, in the field of commerce and manufacture, are afraid of somebody, are afraid of something. They know that there is a power somewhere so organized, so subtle, so watchful, so interlocked, so complete, so pervasive that they had better not speak above their breath when they speak in condemnation of it.
Where I am going with this is that A) this group, GoG or whatever, is likely to yield enormous power and reach, B) it (most likely) has an extremely sinister agenda, and C) it needs both Ukraine and Israel as well as the (facade) of U.S. military might to survive to be able to push the agenda forward.
Hence, we need to ask, how strong is the grip of the GoG on Iran already? Can they dictate the terms of the conflict, or is the inaction of Iran more of a technical nature (missile issues)? At this point, we simply do not know.
However, if we take the above as our starting points, they imply the following:
Iran will not be allowed to “end” Israel, except after Iran itself has been subjected to the GoG in sufficient quantities.
The war in the Middle East will continue in its semi-hot (on-and-off) phase for some time still to push forward the inflation shock and to create conditions for global famine and global depression.1
Preparations for a World War III will continue unabated on all “fronts,” but especially in northern Europe (the next likely escalation vector against Russia).
Most importantly, the GoG is likely to prefer a “breather” on all fronts, because deepening escalation against Ukraine and Israel, by Russia and Iran, could lead them to collapse. This would be likely to set back the prospect of launching a WWIII, possibly for decades. This is likely to be behind the recent arguments for peace by “our” president Alexander Stubb.
The above thus provides us with three testable hypotheses. Generally, my “conspiracy hypothesis” essentially implies that it is time for a (temporary) ceasefire in the Middle East and, possibly, in Ukraine.
Now, we simply wait for what comes. I will end this piece by detailing some changes in our practice portfolio for my paid subscribers.
