The Finger of God

Russia strikes Ukraine with a 'doomsday-weapon' (Free)

This has to be one of the coolest things I’ve seen (it’s very macabre, though). The game of nuclear deterrence has just moved (quite massively) in the favor of Russia.

This is a video of Russia striking a Yuzhmash rocket-plant in Dnipro with a new type of intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), “Oreshnik” (hazelnut tree), with a non-nuclear payload, in the early morning of the 21st of November. It has been speculated that what we see in the video are hits of either Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles, or MIRVS, or Maneuverable Reentry Vehicles, or MaRVS. The difference, as I’ve understood it, is that the former vehicles do not have a propulsion system while the latter has, making them “maneuverable”. It has been estimated that they reached speeds of 12 Mach at terminal, essentially making them unstoppable by any known aerial defense system.¹ The missile looked to carry six separate warheads with six high precision munitions (reentry vehicles). They are like the fingers of God reaching down from heavens. The U.S. was notified on the launch through the nuclear risk reduction channels, because it was likely to trigger the (nuclear) early-warning systems in Europe.

Reports of the damage on the ground are (unsurprisingly) highly conflicting. Official Ukrainian side is reporting that the facility in Yuzhmash was unaffected, while some reports from Ukrainians on the ground state that the whole plant is gone. Moreover, some locals state that there were none of the usual lights and explosions (this was not the first time the facility was struck), but all they felt was a small earth-quake. BBC also reported on massive explosions in the facility lasting for three to four hours after the impact. What everyone agrees is that this was a non-nuclear strike.

The most plausible explanation I’ve seen is that the mutions travelling at immense speeds simply penetrated the outer layers of the facility and exploded at the deeper levels. It has been reported that the Yuzhmash plant was the key factory of missiles and rocket-space industry in Ukraine. Rumors also indicate that it would have hold the repair facility of Rheinmetall for Leopard tanks.

Specifics about the Oreshnik missile system are scarce still, but it can definitely carry a nuclear payload. My original thought after seeing the video above was that the missile was designed for tactical (low-yield, low-radiation) nuclear strikes. Based on everything I’ve read and seen, it truly is a formidable “doomsday” weapon. It's also likely to be a modified version of the intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), like Yars, in the arsenal of Russia.

In any case, the implications of this “test” are harrowing. Effectively, Kreml demonstrated it can strike anywhere in Europe at will. They are so confident on this that President Putin even stated in his televised speech that if Russia is forced to use such a weapon, they will notify the people of affected areas beforehand to evacuate.

At the wake of the strike, Kreml also revised its nuclear deterrence policy. It now considers attacks from an ally of a nuclear power, using weapons provided by that nuclear power, into Russian territory as a joint attack, making such nuclear powers legitimate targets for Russian strikes.

Nothing seems to stop the cycle of escalation though. Yesterday, France announced that Ukraine can use its SCALP/Storm Shadow missiles to strike Russian territory “for a self-defense”. I am honestly running out of explanations for the actions of leaders of NATO countries, except that their ‘overlords’ want to take us into an era of nuclear warfare, regardless of the cataclysmic risks.

The picks of President Trump to his forth-coming cabinet are not totally reassuring for succesful peace negotiations, either. His pick for national security adviser, Mike Waltz, has recently stated that "We need to restore deterrence, restore peace, and get ahead of this escalation ladder, rather than responding to it”. It’s quite unclear what he means by “restoring the deterrence”. On the other side, Senator Mike Rounds, reportedly a top Senate ally of President Trump, stated that “As much as I would like to believe we can negotiate with a tyrant (President Putin), I suspect we may be deceiving ourselves”.

I fear that the ‘hawks’ will first take over of the negotiations, which would mean that Europe would sink deeper into escalation, before reason prevails. The risk is that the level of frustration in Kreml grows to a level, where they decide to respond to the continues provocations with a tactical nuclear strike to Ukraine. I think we are still relatively far from this point, but it’s closing fast, if the current trajectory prevails. The worst-case scenario continues to include a Russian (tactical) nuclear strike as well as a nuclear false flag attack in Ukraine/Europe, by NATO.

We truly in historical times. We will devote the entirety of November Black Swan Outlook of GnS Economics to map them.

Stay safe,

Tuomas

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1. This begs the question, do they really have to “maneuvre”? Reentry indicates the re-entry of the vehicles (munitions) to the atmosphere from space.