Let’s start this week with some interesting news from the Jerusalem Post.
The news broke on Friday, when I was taking a day off from my entries here (as I noted to my paid subscribers on Thursday), but I only noticed this Sunday evening through another piece at the Jerusalem Post. It speculated on the risk that the Israeli missile defenses would not be ready for another onslaught by the Iranians. The piece is full of propaganda about the success of the IDF (Israeli Defense Forces) in destroying Iran’s missile launch capabilities and the damage inflicted on Iran’s nuclear program.
Like I noted on Thursday, the new information I’ve received reinforces my previous view that the strike on Iran’s nuclear facility in Fordow (and Natanz and Isfahan) under “Operation Midnight Hammer” was a charade and part of a deal between Iranian and U.S. regimes to end the Israel-Iran war. After the initial success, Israel was getting hammered by Iranian rocket salvos, which led the Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu to issue a request to President Trump to broker a ceasefire. The situation naturally required some face-saving. From Fighting Iran, through Venezuela? (on 26 Aug):
It continues to be my view that the strikes on Fordow (and Natanz and Istafan) served two aims:
They provided an exit ramp for PM Netanyahu from the conflict, which was about to decimate Israel.
To quell domestic criticism of Zionists and their minions towards President Trump.
Iran “retaliated” by striking a Al-Udeid American base in Qatar. Several reports at the time confirmed that the U.S. had cleared the base of aircraft and other equipment before the strikes. These all look to have been done in an agreement.
Still, I urge you to read the piece of the Jerusalem Post, as it gives a concise picture of the propaganda spewed in the Israeli media while providing important hints about the backroom talks. From another piece published in the outlet yesterday:
I think that the “improper timing” summarizes everything here. The defense capabilities of Israel to withstand another missile onslaught are not ready yet, and the “demonstrations” in Iran did not succeed in their objective, at least not fully.
In October, I read an excellent analysis (I am not sure whether I reported it to you…), which stated that Israel would be ready (stockpiled) for another go sometime in January-February, the earliest, like Iran. The above essentially confirms this. That is, Israel would not have enough Arrow missiles (the Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and the Iron Beam are mostly useless against ballistic missiles). These led us at GnS Economics to conclude in our consensus (most likely) scenario for 2026 that:
The second round in the war between Israel and Iran will flare up shortly after peace in Ukraine is found or when it is very close (the Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics may set the timing).
If this would hold, it would give both Iran and Israel another month to prepare.
It is likely that the massive propaganda campaign on the demonstrations in Iran was about to push President Trump “over the edge” on Wednesday (a possible miscalculation from the CIA, MI6, and Mossad), forcing an intervention from Israeli PM Netanyahu. The actions of President Trump look to become more erratic by the day and bending the American global hegemony narrative pushed by the neocons.1 On this the attack against the PM of Norway, Jonas Gahr Støre, on the Nobel Peace Prize and Greenland today stands in testimony.
I know that I have flip-flopped with my analyses and thus forecasts on the policies of President Trump, but now we are entering uncharted waters. The fact that, despite still possessing all the means to do so, he has been unable to end the war in Ukraine tells me that the neocon faction and the War Triad likely controlling European leaders are starting to get to him. Some also seem to consider that the Greenland annexation would be some stroke of genius to take the island and end NATO at the same stroke, but I highly doubt this. Moreover, the push for the Nobel Peace Prize is closing in on borderline insanity.
I think that President Trump is starting to crack under pressure, while his administration is becoming seriously overstretched with the multiple conflicts they are trying to handle, or start. The last part may even be the strategy of China and Russia (more on this later). Extreme stress and global overreach will inevitably lead to drastic errors in decision-making in the coming months. This is something I’ve been warning about since mid-November.
Moreover, as the approval ratings of President Trump have sunk, we can expect more irrationally rapid decisions and rants aimed at quick “victories” and conquests in the coming weeks and months, as “winning” is rather important for President Trump. Note also that the legally binding publication day of all of the Epstein files was 19 December, but only 1% of them have been published.
I wish you an excellent week,
Tuomas
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“Neocons,” short for neoconservative, has many interpretations, but a neutral view of this political doctrine is “a belief in America’s exceptional role as a promoter of the principles of liberty and democracy, a belief in the preservation of American primacy and in the exercise of power, including military power, as a tool for defending and advancing moralistic and idealistic causes, as well as a suspicion of international institutions and a tendency toward unilateralism.” I write more about it in a separate entry, but a sinister description paints neocons as tools of the War Triad.